It all comes down to the Iran game next Tuesday (2 pm ET | FOX, Telemundo).

After a really strong 0-0 draw against England on Black Friday, the US are in good shape to advance from Group B at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. If you can go into the third game of group play where a result gets you through, it’s in your hands.

In 2006, if we beat Ghana in that third game, we would have been through. We had a point against Italy, who ended up winning the World Cup, and were in a spot to make it happen. But then there’s some controversy, Ghana win and we’re packing our bags early.

In 2002, we end up losing to Poland in the third match, but we were already on four points after the first two games. Then South Korea beat Portugal and we knew we were through in second place.

That’s the key here: Usually four points are enough to get through your group, through whatever combination.

The US are in position to do that, where it looks like they’d probably play Holland from Group A, assuming the US get the second spot in Group B and England get the top one. The US can beat Holland, that’s a Round of 16 game they can win. I’m pretty confident about that.